Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Set over Set

How often does this happen to you? In the 34 hands I played in 3/6 Limit the other night, I had three hands go wrong and cost me almost $130. Two hands I flopped and set and someone ended up with a higher set... one flopped it with JJJ, the other turned it with KKK to beat my flopped 999. The other hand I was semi bluffing with a nut flush draw (two of my suit on the flop) and I bet it all the way trying to win the pot. I ended the session bummed, but not on tilt. I was happy I did not start chasing and being super LAG after my losses. I am growing.

I did go to bed bummed and thinking of how I might have played it differently. Both the hands where I had sets were huge pots for me(over $200) and I really believe that people would play pocket AA, or two pair the way they did. As a matter of fact, the first set bust someone did have AA and called every bet all the way to the end (betting was capped on both the turn and the river. 3 way and one flips AA, the next flips JJ and I flip 33. The flop was K high with no flush or straight draws. Did I play it wrong? I don't know the percentages, but I gotta believe that on that board, any set will win more often than not. The second hand was similar but with me holding 99 and losing to pocket KK. I got the 9 I wanted on the flop and he got the K he wanted on the turn. Same thing, betting capped on the flop, turn, and river.

I am confident that I will recoup the loss, and I keep reading on everyone's blog the concept of "one long session" but I am wondering if anyone has some thoughts on not paying off the higher sets. My thoughts are this: I would play it the same way next time. I don't think the play is -EV. At the levels I play, many (most?) players will pay off a set with a pocket of their own, chasing a draw or flush, and with two pair. Was it just variance toying with me? (I did show the hammer after a successful drop... I drew to the 9 high straight with it beating pocket 10s) In 96 mins of play, what are the odds of flopping two sets and getting beat by an over set on each one?

I have not played much since then due to real life commitments and this has been on my mind. Hopefully, I can get my final HU match against Mourn in soon (after he beats GCox) so I can gain back my rightful position in the final and return the karm to TripJax. I know I am good enough to win this whole thing, but so far it is not working out that way?!?!

Good luck to DNasty, GCox, HighonPoker, and TripJax as they resume to the grinding, bankroll building, and bonus chasing they do so well. As soon as I win back my $130, I will be loading on Titan and chasing some PSO and Titan bonuses.

2 comments:

GaryC said...

For the record, I play the sets in exactly the way you describe. Sets are "Golden" and what you experienced was variance or bad luck. I think everyone will tell you the same thing.

As far as the HU Challenge, we'll just have to wait and see. I will be using my trusty "suck out better hands" strategy against Mourn, so I got that going for me.

G

HighOnPoker said...

Set over set has happened to me more than enough. I offer this suggestion:

You mentioned that when a player has a pocket pair, they'll usually pay out the three-of-a-kind. But in your example, the betting was capped the whole way. This isn't paying off your bets. This is challenging you with raises and re-raises. As a suggestion, maybe slow down when another player bets back at you. Are you happy with winning only one bet per betting round? If not, bet and let him raise and only call. You can cut your exposure this way. It's just a thought. My rule of thumb: Beware re-raises.