Monday, August 29, 2005

They're Baaaa-aack

Sweet! My favorite game on UB has returned, I wonder where it went?

Despite the fact that I really wanted to push and play one more, I only played 4 tonight and went 3-1. The first match was an "outlier". For those not familiar with statistics, that is an observation that is so far out the the standard deviations that it should be ignored lest it become an influential observation and have an exaggerated influence on the whole sample.

Nerd talk aside, the first match on the reappeared HU tables was my fastest match to date lasting a mere 4 hands. I was playing aggressive and made a bad read. For a Friday or Saturday night, it may have been ok, but this is Monday and many of the poker donkeys have taken the day off to recover from their weekend binge. I got dealt AJs in the SB and pot raised it. The BB called. Flop is rainbow 58J. He leads out with a pot sized bet and I double it, I would prefer to take this don right now. He comes back over top of me. This should be a warning, he could have a set very easily. For some reason, I feel that he is making a stand so I will stop pushing him and I push all in. I am hoping for a KJ to appear on the other side of the board and I am sorry to see a 58. I miss my 5 outs and bingo, bango it is over. I laugh, and report in my AIM chat with GCox and DNasty that it was over like that and I amused myself with my donkey play. I know I am better than this and as I advised Gary earlier, you gotta get up and do it again.

I follow my advice and proceed to do it again in three more matches. They were all much better played (and much longer) and I came out on top in all three. Nice. That brings the stats to this:



Win% / ROI
71.4% / 36%

I really wanted to play one more - 15 is a nice divisible by 5 number, but I resisted so I could post and get packing. I will be out of town the next two nights for a small office merger in my Columbus office. Wish me luck... Hope to be back on the virtual felt soon and finishing what I started. Thanks again to Jordan at HighOnPoker for turning me onto these HU SNGs. It ain't for nuttin that he is the #7 blog if yous know what I mean. Forget about it. Zoo York in the house.

P.S. - Jordan's new screen name should be "eigenvector".... that way the blogger spell check will not suggest that forHighOnPoker anymore.


the new said...

just curious... when you raise and the other person comes over the top and goes all in on a board like that, what percent of the time do you estimate he has you beaten?

I ask because this is how I lose a lot of my buy-ins.

Example: I raise UTG with KK. One caller in MP. Board comes Q, 5, 9. I bet 1/2 of the pot. He mini-raises. I re-raise and he goes all in. I think it has to be more than 50% against anyone competent.

STeelerJosh said...

Good question, I would agree with you. Unless the person is a complete maniac, when they reraise your reraise.... it is a good time to step back and wonder why. Usually, I forge ahead and bust out.

Maybe I am not calling them down enough, but I have rarely seen an all in stone cold bluff at the levels I am playing. They usually have a good piece of it like I did or a silent assasin set.

To give my answer to your question, in my experience, it is over 50% of the time. This usually happens when I have a premium hand that caught a piece and they made a set with their pocket 2's. My AK vs their 22 on a A2K flop.

I also think that you may see the re-re-raise all in occaisonally on a flush or open ended straight draw, but that is a -EV play since the other person is probably already pot committed.

Curious if anyone else will post a reply.

GaryC said...

The only person that calls your re-raise all-in is the person that is ahead.

That being said, just because they re-raise you does not mean they are ahead either.

As always, the answer is sometimes or part of the time or most of the time.

Sorry to waste your TIME.


the new said...

Yeah, if I have no redraws, and it's a flop like Ace 7 5 and I'm holding AK, I slow down a lot. Now if it comes A K 7 and the person goes all in, well, I have 4 outs, but even though I know it isn't a lot I usually forge ahead like you do.

At the lower NL levels I'll see people go all in with the nut flush draw or an open ended straight draw, but you're right. -EV.

I've been playing $1/2 recently and even though there are a lot of chasers, none of them jam with draws. They usually have a decent piece of the board, if not the nuts.

Thanks for replying, Josh. And you, too, Gary.

the new said...

er, only four outs if they have a set of 7's on my above example. whoops.

HighOnPoker said...

Thanks for the kind words, Steel. I'm happy I opened you up to the world of HU. Interesting question New. I'd say 75% or more that a player pushing in a hand like that has you beat. You've already shown strength and a willingness to stand firm. At this point, they are usually trying to just get all your cash. That's how I see it at least. Sometimes you'll get someone to semi-bluff with a flush draw, but this is definitely the exception, and not the rule.

As I often type in my notes against players: "Beware the Re-Raise"

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